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Hold on tight - EUR and GBP - Brexit volitility set to spike with crucial uk house of commons vote




Today 15th January 2019 at approximately 19:00 UK time voting will begin on Prime Minister Theresa May's much maligned Brexit deal.

By holding this vote, we expect institutional liquidity providers to widen spreads and, in some cases, stop prices altogether. This can be lengthy as presentations of amendments to the Brexit bill in the House of Commons will have to be voted on first, prolonging the outcome of the final vote on the main bill by the end of the night.

Depending on the outcome or the lack of one, we expect the EUR and GBP markets to react with broader spreads, increased volatility, and possibly even crashes, as in the JPY of January 3, 2019 and GBP on October 7, 2016

The consensus seems to be that parliamentarians will reject the agreement of Theresa May Brexit by a large majority, so that this is already in the pipeline. price of EUR and GBP symbols.

If the agreement is approved then we should see a sharp increase in EUR and GBP. The biggest risk of a shock to the market is not if the agreement is not approved, which is more likely, but that in the window of three days for the government of Theresa May produce a plan B the government is overturned by a vote of distrust or the rebellious MPs can transfer the Brexit negotiation from the government to the parliament.

These scenarios would create more uncertainties, increase volatility and result in unpredictable swings in EUR and GBP. Some newspapers are saying that the most likely outcome now would not be Brexit, with an extension of Article 50 or a second referendum. Both results are likely to be positive for both the EUR and the GBP.

The uncertainty and protracted nature of the Brexit talks promise much volatility and trade opportunities for some time, however, with increased volatility and increased chances of collisions, the risks of police announcements will also increase sharply.



The information provided herein is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended and should not be construed to constitute advice. If such information is acted upon by you then this should be solely at your discretion and Valutrades will not be held accountable in any way.

This post was written by Graeme Watkins

CEO Valutrades Limited, Graeme Watkins is an FX and CFD market veteran with more than 10 years experience. Key roles include management, senior systems and controls, sales, project management and operations. Graeme has help significant roles for both brokerages and technology platforms.