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Market Recap: 26 - 30 October



On Tuesday last week we covered UK Oil which spent the remainder of the week continuing to decline sharply. For the last week or so, the key $43 level has been providing stiff resistance and constant downward pressure on prices and now UK Oil has fallen to a four month low below $38. The latest period of rejection was on the back of a strong rally in early October which saw UK Oil move from a three month low below $39 back up to the key level at $43.

In the last few weeks UK Oil has made repeated attempts to break through the long time key level of $43 which reinforces how significant this level is. It has spent the best part of the last two months trading below this level after falling sharply through it from a six month high above $46, and it now looks as though it will be a difficult climb to return to the key $43 level.




We also covered the US30 index which spent the remainder of the week dropping to another key level of 26000 before rallying a little finish the week. The US30 index had been slowly easing away from the strong resistance at the key 29000 level over the last two weeks however the fall really accelerated in the last week as it has fallen sharply through the support at the key 28000 level to a three month low around 26000. This fall has followed a strong period which saw the US30 index rally very well moving from a six week low to back above the key 28000 level and towards 29000, which offered stiff resistance. The 29000 level also provided resistance to the US30 index in early September, when it was approaching its all time high set earlier in the year, and while it received some support from the other key level of 28000, this has now been broken through strongly. For the last three months, the US index has moved mainly between support at 27000 and resistance at 29000, however the former level has now been strongly broken through and may provide some resistance.




We also covered the EURUSD which spent all of last week moving lower down to a one month low below the key 1.17 level. Up until recently, the EURUSD had enjoyed solid support from the 1.17 level and several weeks ago the EURUSD rested on support at this level after having recovered in the days before rallying higher back above the key level of 1.17 which has previously supported the EURUSD very well. Over the last few weeks, the 1.17 had reinforced itself as a key level as it continued to prop up the EURUSD, however it may now reverse roles and offer some resistance to the EURUSD if it attempts to rally. Now that it has fallen through 1.17, the next obvious support level is around the 1.16 low from a few weeks ago or down at 1.13. Several weeks ago the EURUSD made another run and reached a two year high above 1.19, however it reversed strongly after meeting solid selling pressure. The 1.19 level has established itself as a key level as it has been resisting prices for the last three months as the EURUSD had been consolidating after its strong move through July.




To finish out the week we covered the USDJPY which finished the week enjoying support from the key 104 level and attempting to move higher.  In the last few days of the week, the USDJPY has rebounded strongly off the key support level of 104 after having fallen strongly throughout the last few weeks from a three week high above 106.It didn’t enjoy any support from 105, as it has previously and continued down to what it now becoming a significant level for the USDJPY.  Up until two weeks ago, the USDJPY had spent several weeks settling in a narrow range above 105 after rallying well from a six month low below 104.  In the week prior it had fallen strongly to that six month low and enjoyed solid support from the 104 level after having formed a trough there at the end of July.  For the best part of the last three months, the USDJPY has generally traded between 105 and 107, and it has rallied up from support around the key 105 level on several occasions, however this range has now extended down to 104 which is supporting it well.

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The information provided herein is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended and should not be construed to constitute advice. If such information is acted upon by you then this should be solely at your discretion and Valutrades will not be held accountable in any way.

This post was written by Graeme Watkins

CEO Valutrades Limited, Graeme Watkins is an FX and CFD market veteran with more than 10 years experience. Key roles include management, senior systems and controls, sales, project management and operations. Graeme has help significant roles for both brokerages and technology platforms.