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Market Recap: 28 September - 2 October



On Tuesday last week we covered UK Oil which spent the remainder of the week disappearing quickly from the key $43 level falling to a near four month low below $40. Just prior to the fall, UK Oil made repeated attempts over two weeks to break through the long time key level of $43. After settling in a narrow range right around $40 after having fallen sharply for the week prior from a six month high above $46, UK Oil did well to rally back to this key level before easing below again. For the last four months the $43 level has played a key role in UK Oil and continues to do so as it is currently providing resistance.

Several weeks ago UK Oil reached the six month high, after very slowly but steadily moving higher in a period of very low volatility. It was able to enjoy some strong support from the $43 level, however this has now been strongly broken through and is providing some resistance as expected. In early June UK Oil made two solid runs towards a then three month high and met stiff resistance at $43 on both occasions.



We also covered the US30 index which spent the remainder of the week maintaining pressure on the key 28000 level after having the last week rallying from a six week low to back above the key 27000 level back into the range under 28000. It did enjoy some support from 27000 a week ago or so ago and this may continue to prop up the index. Despite its rally in the last week, the last four weeks has seen the index decline dropping sharply from its six month high above 29000 back to lows below 27000, although it has made some attempts to rally back above the key 28000 level. Any support received at 28000 was convincingly broken after having provided some support for a few days and it is currently offering some resistance. In the two weeks leading up to the resistance at 28000 around mid-August, the US30 index moved steadily higher reaching a then six month high just above 28000. For a few weeks in July the US30 index meet resistance at another key level of 27000 whilst bouncing off support at 26000, which is why the 27000 level is now offering some support to the index.



In the few days to finish last week the EURUSD sat on support at the key 1.17 level after having done well to rally higher back above 1.17 which has previously supported the EURUSD very well. After meeting stiff resistance at the other key level at 1.19, it fell sharply and was able to push through 1.17 down to a two month low before the recent rally. This return seems fitting given the EURUSD has spent the best part of the last two months trading between these two key levels with the 1.19 level providing stiff resistance. Several weeks ago the EURUSD made another run and reached a two year high above 1.19, however it reversed strongly after meeting solid selling pressure. The 1.19 level has established itself as a key level as it has been resisting prices for the last two months as the EURUSD had been consolidating after its strong move through July. In the few weeks leading up to the recent highs, the EURUSD surged higher strongly after meeting some resistance at 1.13 for several weeks, as it was trading between support at 1.12 and the resistance at 1.13 consolidating there for several weeks.



To finish out the week we covered the USDJPY which finished the week trading in a narrow range above the recent key level of 105 after rallying well in the previous two weeks from a six month low below 104.  In the week prior it had fallen strongly to that six month low and enjoyed solid support from the 104 level after having formed a trough at the end of July.  For the best part of the last two months, the USDJPY has generally traded between 105 and 107, and it has rallied up from support around the key 105 level on two occasions however a few weeks ago the support was overrun with selling pressure.  The 105 level would be expected to continue to offer support to the USDJPY and this level fails, the 104 may be called upon again too.

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The information provided herein is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended and should not be construed to constitute advice. If such information is acted upon by you then this should be solely at your discretion and Valutrades will not be held accountable in any way.

This post was written by Graeme Watkins

CEO Valutrades Limited, Graeme Watkins is an FX and CFD market veteran with more than 10 years experience. Key roles include management, senior systems and controls, sales, project management and operations. Graeme has help significant roles for both brokerages and technology platforms.