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Market Recap: 9 - 13 November



On Tuesday last week we covered UK Oil which spent the remainder of the week surging higher before easing back to the key $43 level and below. In the last week or so, UK Oil surged higher from its lowest level in five months below $36.50 back up to the key $43 level which has again provided stiff resistance, before it broke through to a two month high above $45. Leading up to last week’s surge, UK Oil fell away strongly from the key level of $43 which now continues to play a role and in recent time, has provided resistance. Now that it has returned back below this level, the $43 may provide some resistance again, as for the last two months or so, this level has been providing stiff resistance and constant downward pressure on prices.

During this time, UK Oil has made repeated attempts to break through the long time key level of $43 which reinforces how significant this level is. It has spent the best part of the last two months trading below this level after falling sharply through it from a six month high above $46.




We also covered the US30 index which spent the remainder of the week resting on support at the key 29000 level, after having surged higher to a new all time high above 30000 and in doing so, smashing through resistance at the key 29000 level. The 29000 level has applied downward pressure on the index for some time now, so it is no surprise that it is currently supporting prices. In its recent surge, the US30 index also pushed strongly through 27000 and 28000 which have play a significant role in the price action of the US30 in the last few months. It recently enjoyed strong support from 26000 which its most recent fall from the resistance at 29000, which allowed the index some support to rally back higher again. The 29000 level also provided resistance to the US30 index in early September, when it was approaching its all time high set earlier in the year, and now it has finally broken through with an increase in volatility. For the last three months, the US index has moved mainly between support at 27000 and resistance at 29000 and with the repeated attempts to break through 29000 being thwarted, it demonstrates how significant the most recent break through is.




We also covered the EURUSD which finished last week settling right in the middle of the current trading range. In the last week, the EURUSD eased away from the key 1.19 level which has again resisted prices and placed downward pressure on the currency pair. In the week leading up to this, it surged higher from below the other current key level of 1.17. Several weeks ago the EURUSD rested on support at the 1.17 level after having recovered in the days before rallying higher back above the key level of 1.17 which has previously supported the EURUSD very well. Over the last few weeks, the 1.17 has reinforced itself as a key level as it continues to prop up the EURUSD and keep it within the range between it and the other key level at 1.19. If it was to fall through 1.17, the next obvious support level is around the 1.16 low which has propped it up on two occasions now in the last few weeks. The recent rally to back above 1.17 seemed fitting given the EURUSD has spent the best part of the last three months trading between these two key levels with the 1.19 level providing stiff resistance.




To finish out the week we covered the USDJPY which finished the week dropping back below the key 105 level.  Earlier in the week, the USDJPY surged higher in its largest single day move in more than six months as it pushed through 104 and returned to a three week high back above 105.  Prior to the surge, it was trading at an eight month low down near 103 after having broken through the strong support at the key 104 level.  Prior to the support at 104, the USDJPY had eased back over the previous few weeks from a three week high above 106.It didn’t enjoy any support from 105, as it has previously and continued down to what it now becoming a significant level for the USDJPY.  The USDJPY has now returned to back above 105 where it is expected to receive more support, as this level has provided support on and off for the last four months.  For the best part of the last four months, the USDJPY has generally traded between 105 and 107, and it has rallied up from support around the key 105 level on several occasions, however this range has now extended down to 104 which had been supporting it well up until the break lower a week or so ago.

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The information provided herein is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended and should not be construed to constitute advice. If such information is acted upon by you then this should be solely at your discretion and Valutrades will not be held accountable in any way.

This post was written by Graeme Watkins

CEO Valutrades Limited, Graeme Watkins is an FX and CFD market veteran with more than 10 years experience. Key roles include management, senior systems and controls, sales, project management and operations. Graeme has help significant roles for both brokerages and technology platforms.