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US30 - Drops Sharply from above 28000 on Trump Comments and Weak Data



US30 - Drops Sharply from above 28000 on Trump Comments and Weak Data
In the last two days the US30 index has fallen sharply away from all time highs above 28000 and will now be eyeing off support at 27000 if it continues to decline. After trading around the key 27000 level for several weeks, the last few weeks have seen the US30 index surge higher to new all time highs above 28000, before easing, rallying again, and now dropping sharply and returning a lot of the gains.

Throughout October it rallied well and moved back above the current key level of 27000 after the index was ably supported by the 26000 level which propped up the index earlier. It was again the 26000 level which allowed the index to move well to a one month high above 27000 mid-September.

Throughout August the US30 Index traded back and forth around the key 26000 level and this range is now playing a role again supporting the index. During the previous range trading, it found support at 25200 and this level was established after it suffered its largest falls this year dropping sharply from near its all time highs down to its lowest levels in two months near 25000 in early August. In the first week of July, the index consolidated a little in a narrow range roughly between 26500 and 26900, and it used that period of consolidating to great effect pushing higher to the new highs. The consolidation is also of little surprise after its price action over the few weeks beforehand.

In early June the US30 index rallied strongly to return to back above the 25000 level and continue beyond another key level in 26000 to reach a then one month high, before consolidating a little and enjoying some support from 26000. Given the significance of the 26000 level, there was little surprise that the index enjoyed some support from this level as it consolidated. Despite its excursion below 25000 in late May, this level remained likely to offer some support to the index.

U.S. stocks fell sharply after manufacturing data was released and then further after President Trump’s comments.  U.S. stocks didn't respond well to President Trump's suggestion of waiting on a trade deal until after the 2020 presidential election.  “In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal, but they want to make a deal now and we will see whether or not the deal is going to be right,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday.  When asked about any deadline, he said: “I have no deadline, no ... In some ways, I think it is better to wait until after the election if you want to know the truth.”  The Institute for Supply Management said that manufacturing activity in the U.S. continued to contract last month, easing to 48.1 in November, which was well below the estimate of 49.4.  Market sentiment was also impacted after U.S. President Donald Trump earlier in the week said China still wants to make a deal on trade, “but we’ll see what happens.”  There is still uncertainty of when either country will sign a trade deal, and this wasn’t helped either when President Trump signed legislation supporting protesters in Hong Kong.  Trump said the bill signing “doesn’t make it better.”

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