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US30 - Remains near All Time Highs as Fed Forecasts “almost ideal” Outcome



US30 - Remains near All Time Highs as Fed Forecasts almost ideal Outcome

In the last two weeks the US30 index has consolidated between 28500 and 29000 as it has generally moved solidly in the last month or so. The last few weeks have seen the index move strongly higher to all time highs again after breaking through the key 28000 level, which had been providing resistance to the index. Earlier last month, it had fallen sharply away from the then all time high above 28000, and was possibly eyeing off support at 27000 given the rate it was falling, however it quickly regained that lost ground and returned back above 28000 before its strong move in the last few weeks. Should the index decline from its current levels, the 28000 level is likely to play a role and provide support.

After trading around the key 27000 level for several weeks near the end of October, the US30 index broke away and surged higher to then all time highs above 28000, which suggests the 27000 level will also provide some support in the future if called upon. Throughout October it rallied well and moved back above the current key level of 27000 after the index was ably supported by the 26000 level which propped up the index earlier, which may also provide some support.

It was again the 26000 level which allowed the index to move well to a one month high above 27000 mid-September, and throughout August the US30 Index traded back and forth around the key 26000 level. During the previous range trading, it found support at 25200 and this level was established after it suffered its largest falls this year dropping sharply from near its then all time highs down to its lowest levels in two months near 25000 in early August.

Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren has warned the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to remember potential risks of their current path, as Fed policymakers are forecasting an “almost ideal” outcome in 2020.  This ‘almost ideal’ outcome is where inflation will approach the central bank’s 2% target and the U.S. labor market will stay strong.  “Central bankers do not have much historical experience with extended periods where interest rates are running below the estimated equilibrium level while unemployment rates are, simultaneously, historically low,” Rosengren said to the Connecticut Business & Industry Association.  “So we want to be alert to any potential risks emerging.”  Interestingly, Mr Rosengren voted against the three rate cuts passed by the Fed last year, as he believed that the low interest rates were accommodative.  He does not have a vote in any monetary policy decisions this year due to the normal central bank rotation policy.  In December, the Fed voted unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged the central bank sent a strong indication that rates are likely to stay at current levels for the time being.

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