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XAUUSD - Rallies to Key $1870 Level as Fed Raises Forecasts



XAUUSD - Rallies to Key 1870 Level as Fed Raises Forecasts
In the last two days the XAUUSD has rallied well from a two week low back towards $1870 which only a week ago provided stiff resistance to a strong rally. Three weeks ago, the XAUUSD rallied well off four month lows below $1770 to return to $1870, after spending several weeks easing away from the resistance at the key $1900 level. The last three months has seen the XAUUSD spend a considerable amount of time trading around $1900, which has reinforced how significant this level is. If the XAUUSD is to continue to rally back to $1900, it is highly likely to experience further resistance at this level.

In early November, it surged through to a six week high above $1960 before falling even more sharply returning all gains in falling to a five week low around $1850. Up until the initial break lower in late September, the XAUUSD had rested on strong support at the key $1900 level after having moved sharply back and forth in the few weeks prior. The $1900 level will be expected to continue to provide some resistance to gold, as it seems to content to trade not far away from it.

In early August, XAUUSD fell sharply from its all time high around $2075 however it was stopped well by the support around the $1900 level which has been able to buffer the fall and allow it to consolidate in the time since, even allowing it to rally back above $2000 before returning to support. Throughout June and July, gold steadily climbed higher off support at the key level of $1675, to its all time highs. Just before its most recent surge higher, XAUUSD consolidated around then eight year highs above $1800 mid July after moving steadily higher in the previous few weeks, and this level may provide some support now that gold has fallen back through support at $1900.

Throughout April to June, XAUUSD consolidated well being well supported by the key $1675 level, which set up conditions for the subsequent push higher. Just prior to that move higher, gold was trading in a very narrow range around $1730 after having recently bounced off the solid support at $1675, and the $1730 level may also provide some support should it decline. If the support at $1675 fails, it will return to a range where it has spent the best part of this year trading in. It spent around two weeks consolidating around $1600 after the first solid rally from near $1450 before pushing higher again.

At their last meeting for 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) lifted its economic expectations slightly for the end of 2020, as well as for 2021.The Fed expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to fall just 2.4% in 2020, compared to a decline of 3.7% predicted in September, while increasing its GDP forecast for 2021 to 4.2% from 4.0% expected previously.  As a surprise to no one, the central bank held their benchmark interest rates near zero following the conclusion of its two-day meeting.  The Fed also said it would continue to buy at least $120 billion of bonds each month “until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals,” the post-meeting statement said.  “These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses,” the Federal Open Market Committee added in a statement that gained unanimous approval.  “Together, these measures will ensure that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy until the recovery is complete,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at his post-meeting news conference.

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The information provided herein is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended and should not be construed to constitute advice. If such information is acted upon by you then this should be solely at your discretion and Valutrades will not be held accountable in any way.

This post was written by Graeme Watkins

CEO Valutrades Limited, Graeme Watkins is an FX and CFD market veteran with more than 10 years experience. Key roles include management, senior systems and controls, sales, project management and operations. Graeme has help significant roles for both brokerages and technology platforms.