Watch as Paul Wallace explains why the US Non-Farm Payroll report is one of the most important reports for forex traders to follow.
Good morning, traders. It's Paul here on behalf of Valutrades here from a very snowy trading office this morning. So I've been asked to talk to you about news trading and, in particular, the non-farm payrolls number. So whenever traders, investors need to, let's say, gauge the health of a particular asset, whether that be a commodity, a stock, a currency, or even a particular nation, we're helped by the particular organization delivering elements of what we'd call maybe formal news, which represents the fundamental elements of that specific asset.For the U.S. economy as a whole, one of the major gauges of health we can have is using the U.S. non-farm payrolls. I appreciate that some of you will be completely new to trading and may not even have an understanding of that. So, very briefly and very quickly, the U.S. non-farm payrolls is delivered normally every first Friday of every month, 8:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time, which is about 1:30 U.K., 2:30 Central European Time. And what it does is it gives an indication of the number of jobs created the previous month, excluding farm rolls, self-employment, the military, and one or two other small exceptions.What you normally get is the number, a sort of a comparison to, sort of, the previous month, and then also any adjustments for previous months as, sort of, new, and the data's got a little bit tighter.
What that does is that gives us an indication of the health of the U.S. economy. And you know, if I was going to give you some guidance regarding how you use that idea or that number for trading ideas, I think the simple word would be "expectation." That's the word I would be looking to work on. And what does that actually mean? What we're really looking at is, you know, you can quite often see that maybe the news is positive, but actually the market sells off. And, you know, new traders might be confused as to why that might happen.
Well, it's all about expectations. The news may have been positive, but the expectation may have been for a much stronger number. And when that stronger number hasn't been realized, well then, actually, what we see is the market slip away. So anyway, there's just a very quick little insight. You'll see there's a blog post on the Valutrades website. Keep an eye out for Value Trades webinars on non-farm payrolls, and I wish you the very best of success in your own trading, ladies and gentlemen.
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